Worldwide Wireless Data Trends - Mid Year Update 2006

 

 

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This research note summarizes the wireless data trends in over 40 countries and the analysis of over 30 prominent operators.

• Wireless industry crossed several milestones this past 6 months - 2 billion GSM subscribers and is on its way to the quickest billion subscribers within the next 2 years. 100M 3G subscribers with 66% coming from WCDMA (40% of these from Japan) and rest from EV-DO.
• Japan led the way with approximately $10B in wireless data service revenues for the first half of 2006. US and China followed with approximately $7B and $5.5B respectively.
• The #1 carrier worldwide in terms of total wireless data revenues for the first six months of 2006 is NTT DoCoMo with over $5.1B in data revenues. It was followed by China Mobile ($3.9B), KDDI ($3.3B), Verizon Wireless ($1.9B), and Cingular Wireless ($1.9B). Sprint Nextel, O2 UK, Vodafone Japan, SK Telecom, and China Unicom filled the rest of the top 10 slots respectively.
• China crossed the 400M subscriber mark and is on its way to cross the half billion subscriber mark in 2007. As first discussed in our “India’s Wireless Market” report, India is rivaling China’s monthly net adds of 5M/month and crossed the 100M subscriber mark making it the fourth largest subscriber base after China, US, and Russia. India will cross Russia later this year and the US by 2008 to become the second largest wireless market.
• Western Europe officially crossed the 100% wireless subscriber penetration mark (due to multiple SIMs) with several nations reporting up to 115-120% subscriber penetration. In spite of crossing 70% penetration mark, US wireless market shows no sign of slowing down and is strongly progressing towards another record year with over 25M net adds in 2006.
• In terms of total subscribers, China Mobile with 274M subscribers is way ahead of the second ranked Vodafone, which has 187M subscribers. China Unicom, América Móvil, Telefonica, SingTel, Deutsche Telekom (T-Mobile), and Orange (France Telecom) are the next six largest telecom groups in the world. In terms of individual carriers, Cingular and Verizon now occupy the #3 and #4 spot respectively ahead of NTT DoCoMo, which is at #5. The two Chinese carriers round up the top two positions and are likely to stay perched at their lookout vistas for some years to come. Telecom groups in mature markets are under enormous pressure to either come up with a global expansion strategy or accelerate their existing plans. Carriers in Japan and Korea are the most under duress.
• Japan became the first nation to have more than 50% of its subscribers using 3G. Korea is close second. 3G is starting to pick-up steam in both western Europe and North America as discussed in our cover story article “3G: Hitting the Mass Market” published in Moconews.net and Wireless World Magazine. Since then, we have presented our research at IEEE, CINA, EMC, Carriers in US; in Japan, Korea, and Russia; and later this year in India.
• China and India represent the biggest opportunities for Infrastructure providers. China has postponed its 3G decision for the umpteenth time and is having technical and political problems to get something in place before the 2008 Olympics. India is going through its 3G spectrum policy but unlike China is likely to resolve the issues in short order. Ericsson just scored a $1B contract with Bharti. BSNL’s tender is worth 2-3 times more.
• In terms of data ARPU, Japan continues to lead the pack with 28% of its revenues coming from data services amounting to almost $17 data ARPU. Ireland, Norway, Switzerland, UK and South Korea also registered significant data ARPU. US crossed the ($5, 10%) block, where $5 is the data ARPU and 10% represents the % share of overall ARPU. As of June 2006, US stood at ($6.3, 12%). For detailed US Wireless Market update, please see “US Wireless Data Market - Mid Year Update 2006” ( For more details, please refer to the 9-box diagram in the ppt or the 2006 paper – “Worldwide Wireless Data Trends”; for 2005 comparative numbers, please refer to our paper from last year titled “Perspectives: Wireless Data ARPU”)
• NTT DoCoMo’s position at the top of the wireless data world has been challenged recently by several carriers esp. by its archrival KDDI which surged past DoCoMo for two straight quarters. Their data coordinates respectively stand at ($17.3, 28.9%) and ($16.5, 28%). However, it is 3 UK that is inching towards ($20, 30%) mark with $19.3 data ARPU contributing over 25% to its overall ARPU. 3 Italy with ($15.6, 34%) is also amongst the leaders.
• The biggest % contribution by data ARPU has been consistently registered (since mid 2002) by the two Philippines carriers – Smart Communications and Globe Telecom with almost 50% (or $3) contribution coming from data services.
• Even though China reported approximately $5.5B in data revenues, and the % contribution is over 20%, data ARPU is around $2, confirming what we already know – it’s a volume game. For India data ARPU is just over $1.2. Approximately same for Brazil and Russia. Actually, in 2005 the overall wireless service revenues in US were two times the overall revenues of the four BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries combined. So, lessons are pretty clear as to which markets to approach for what products and services.
• We will have to look at the EOY 2006 numbers but there are some indications of cooling down of data ARPU growth in mature markets of Japan, Korea, and UK. So, while % contribution will increase due to declining voice revenues, data ARPU will not make up for the loss. Most of the mature markets face the same dilemma. In fact, comparing EOY 2005 to 2004 numbers, only a handful nations registered positive increase in overall ARPU with Canada ($3), Korea ($3), Mexico ($1), Taiwan ($1), Brazil ($1), and Chile ($1) showing an increase. For majority of the other nations, the ARPU declined, for example by $2 for US, Thailand, India, Australia, and Argentina. Nigeria recorded a massive $23 decline.
• All the carriers in the top 10 wireless carriers by wireless data revenues list exceeded $1B in data revenues for the first six months of 2006. China Mobile and China Unicom benefited from their huge subscriber base of 274M and 135M respectively while DoCoMo and KDDI did well because they are generating over $17 (or 28%) in wireless data ARPU.
• Carriers with nationwide 3G networks and good distribution of handsets are seeing up tick in data ARPU. The Japanese and Korean carriers along with operator 3, Verizon, Sprint Nextel are all seeing benefits of rolling out their 3G service. Deployment of 3.5G technologies such as HSDPA and EV-DO Rev A (and B) are also gaining momentum. Networks are getting deployed and market is being seeded with some of the early handsets.
• In terms of applications, messaging accounts for lion-share of data revenues. However, other services such as Mobile Music, Mobile TV and video streaming, Mobile Games, IMS, LBS, Mobile advertising, and others have captured industry’s imagination. Though not much talked about, enterprise applications are also being adopted widely esp. in North America as more workers become mobile and corporations seek efficiencies in their operations and supply-chain.
• In Japan and Korea, consumer messaging revenue only accounts for 30% of the data revenues, rest is from multimedia applications, browser traffic, and other infotainment applications. It is almost the reverse in Europe with 70-80% (on average) of the data revenue is coming from messaging. There are some exceptions like Vodafone Spain, Telefonica Moviles Espana, and Eurotel, who have over 40% of their data revenues coming from non-messaging applications. For North America, the data revenue from non-messaging applications (excluding transport) is around 20%.
• China Mobile is challenging Vodafone’s supremacy as most valued telecom operator. For a brief period in August, it was valued higher than Vodafone and is likely to overtake the crown as China continues to add significant number of subscribers while Vodafone struggles.
• WiMax is gaining some traction both in the developed and developing world. However, the case for mobile WiMax is still quite questionable. By the time the embedded devices come to fruition, 3G devices will be quite pervasive and the WiMax services will not be able to compete on price alone. And, a sub $30 WiMax handset for the developing world is nothing short of a pipe dream at this point. WiMax for backhaul makes sense, and some niche scenarios for fixed wireless services will also be successful, but clearly, we will not be witnessing replacement of cellular anytime soon. Free Wi-Fi movement scored more deployments around the world though the business model to support them long-term stays unproven.

Your comments are always welcome.

See you at CTIA.

US Wireless Data Market - Mid Year Update 2006

Download PPT - http://www.chetansharma.com/midyearupdate06.htm 

• US wireless data market is growing at an impressive rate. Top 4 US carriers (Cingular, Verizon, Sprint Nextel, and T-Mobile) accounted for over $6.3B in wireless data revenues for the first half of 2006. Overall, wireless data service revenues exceeded $7B and the figures are likely to exceed $15B for the year 2006. This is almost a 75% jump from end-of-2005 number of $8.6B. The growth rate slowed down only slightly from 2004-2005 growth rate of 87%. SMS and data transport still drives bulk of data revenues but their percentage share is declining.
• Among the top 4 US carriers, Verizon has made the most impressive strides in the last 4 quarters, increasing their wireless data revenues by a whopping 114%. Next Sprint with 71%, T-Mobile with 65%, and Cingular with 54% also netted impressive gains.
• Verizon became the first US carrier to net over $1B in wireless data revenues in a quarter. Cingular was close second with $979M and Sprint with $935M are likely to cross the $1B mark next quarter.
• Sprint retains its leadership position of highest wireless data ARPU in terms of absolute dollar amount at $7.25 but lost its number one spot in the % data ARPU to Verizon which now leads the US carriers at almost 13%. Average data ARPU is now $6.3 or 12%.
• Overall ARPU (voice + data) increased slightly from Q106 but declined $0.27 from Q405. The general trend is towards slow decline. Data revenue is barely keeping up with the decline in voice ARPU. On an average voice ARPU has declined 8% from a year ago and data ARPU has increased 48%. Average Overall ARPU was $53.04. Sprint led with $62 followed by T-Mobile at $51, Verizon at $49.7, and Cingular with $48.4.
• If the current trends hold, Verizon Wireless is likely to surpass Cingular Wireless as number 1 US carrier by Q307.
• US had about 7M 3G subscribers by Q206, primarily from Verizon and Sprint Nextel. With Cingular joining the fray, the 3G growth is expected to accelerate with 2007 being the inflection year.
• US wireless subscriber penetration stands at approximately 74% and is likely to exceed 78% by the end of the year.
• Top 4 carriers added 12.7M subscribers from Jan-Jun 2006.
• The top 4 US carrier account for 79% of the subscribers, 86% of the service revenues, and approximately 95% of the wireless data revenues.
• US Off-net revenues for the year are likely to exceed $750M.
• Data ARPU of CDMA/EV-DO carriers was 20% higher than GSM/WCDMA carriers.
• Several high-profile MVNOs were also launched in the last few months and the overall results have been disappointing primarily due to poor execution, instant crowding effect, and competition from big 4.
• US wireless carriers are steadily climbing in their wireless data performance as compared to their peers worldwide. Verizon, Cingular, and Sprint ranked number 4, 5, and 6 respectively, amongst the top 10 operators worldwide in terms of total wireless data revenue generated for first half of 2006.
• The #1 carrier worldwide in terms of total wireless data revenue for the first six months of 2006 is NTT DoCoMo which has maintained its position for a number of years. It is now generating almost $900M/month from wireless data revenues.
• The top 10 carriers in terms of total wireless data revenues for 1H06 in order of rank are NTT DoCoMo, China Mobile, KDDI, Verizon Wireless, Cingular Wireless, Sprint Nextel, O2 UK, Vodafone Japan, SK Telecom, and China Unicom. (6 Asian, 3 US, 1 Europe. Who says US is behindJ). Vodafone Germany, TMO Germany, and TMO US are also closing in.
• All the top 10 carriers in the list exceeded $1B in data revenues for the first six months of 2006. China Mobile and China Unicom benefited from their huge subscriber base of 274M and 135M respectively while DoCoMo and KDDI did well because they are generating over $17 (or 28%) in wireless data ARPU.
• The top 10 carriers accounted for almost $24B in wireless data revenues for the first six months of 2006. The top 10 carriers account for approximately 700M (or approx 28%) subscribers worldwide.
• In terms of wireless investments, over $2.8B was invested in wireless related companies/startups from Jan-Jun 2006 (this figure jumped to $4.1B in July). Source: Rutberg. Mobile TV/Video, Mobile Personalization, Mobile Search and Advertising, Semiconductor, Carrier infrastructure, Device design and development are hot areas. M&A activity also picked up quite significantly.
• WiMax industry got a big boost with almost $1B investment in Clearwire and due to Sprint Nextel’s announcement of WiMax deployment. Sigh of relief for Intel and Samsung. Puts pressure on Qualcomm. Maybe Intel will renegotiate with Clearwire.
• Worldwide Handset market share: Nokia and Motorola dominated with 35% and 23% market share respectively. Samsung with 12% stands third. Source: iSuppli. Though Apple’s iPhone rumors have been clouding the market, it is Motorola which continues to lead in launching must-have handsets. Windows mobile is starting to make serious inroads in the handset market but performance issues and high price points deter mass market adoption.

Download PPT http://www.chetansharma.com/midyearupdate06.htm 

India - Driving the Next Phase of Global (Wireless) Expansion

the article is online now http://www.chetansharma.com/India_July06.pdf

Can Zune take on iPOD

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5205296.stm

Microsoft has been trying very hard to challenge iPOD’s dominance. After trying out several hardware vendors, its product plans went no where. Zune might arrive to the markets by Christmas but it needs to be a generation ahead of iPOD if it can even make a dent otherwise it will be a “mee-tooo” product few years late

Japan continues solid growth in mobile data

http://www.mobileindustry.biz/article.php?article_id=1775

According to Ministry of Internal Affairs of Communication state that the mobile industry has grown to 722.4 billion Yen (4.9 billion Euro) over the past 12 months - a rise of 39 per cent. The increase was boosted by mobile content sales, which rose by 21 per cent to reach 315 billion Yen (2.1 billion Euro). Sales of ringtones accounted for 161 billion Yen (1.09 billion Euro).

Mobile Game Conference Roundup

Over the last couple of years, Seattle has become a Mecca for digital and interactive media. Seattle hosted the Mobile Gaming Conference on the 13^th and 14^th. Next year’s World Cyber Games 2007 will elevate its status further to a new level. Several key players were at hand to talk about the status of mobile gaming industry and where it is headed. WSA’s Gaming SIG also organized an event “Value Models of Mobile Games” to coincide with MGC (on the 13^th). I had the privilege of moderating an experienced panel that included Derrick Morton, GM Mobile Games, Real Networks; Jeff Davis, CEO, GoGoMo; Tom Meigs, Executive Producer, Yahoo Mobile Games; and Scott Wallin, CEO, Metaplay. This note summarizes the thoughts, observations, and discussions from the two events.

First, let’s do the numbers. According to the two leading industry players (rivals) – Telephia and M:Metrics, who measure the US mobile market, mobile gaming segment, is growing. By how much is anybody’s guess?

• Game downloads represent approximately 6% (approx $50M/month revenue) of the mobile data revenues (compared to say Japan which is over 15-20%) and have approximately 5% subscriber-penetration in the US
• While the number of first time buys is increasing (1.6M in May), repeat purchases are not scaling up
• US has about 2% smart phone penetration but over 22% of such subscribers downloaded mobile games. Over 18% of the 3G users downloaded games – which is obvious – better user experience leads to more interactivity
• The mobile game industry is growing. The number of downloads increased from 6M to 11M in a period of 7 months (Nov 05 to May 06) and the revenue jumped from approx $40M/month to $100M/month.
• Not surprisingly, 13-24 age demographics is making majority of the purchases
• 40% of mobile games played come embedded with the phone
• Online promotion leads to 5-10X increase in mobile game sales
• There is significant dispute over the leading games list published every month list (we will get to the “statistical discrepancy” or as someone would say “fuzzy math” a bit later)

Trends –

Current landscape – Carrier has the power, Deck placement rules, meager carrier staff to review games. Independent developers at a big disadvantage. Mobilized Classic games still the front runner. Big head is developing (top 5 mobile game providers have over 60-65% of the market share, EA Mobile with over 30-35%), no efficient way to leverage the long tail. Multi-player and cross-platform games only exist on powerpoint decks, limited interoperability across carriers and platforms. Single digit subscriber penetration, no gaming specific wireless devices. Business models straightforward – subscription or download purchase. IP primarily relates to content and licensing. Catalog on the server. Microsoft a fringe player. For D2C players, only marketing drives sales. Poor discovery and distribution. Insignificant use of other phone features (camera, haptics, broadcast, music, SIP, IMS) into the game environment. Development cycles shorter than legal and payment cycles for the smaller developers.

Future landscape – Community driven market place. Tight integration of other mobile technologies (music, video, IM, advertising, location, etc.) with games. More consolidation (intra- and inter-segment). D2C rules. Mobile search drives growth for independent and small publishers, new business models are introduced. Carrier product managers leave their power jobs for industry positions. Multi-player and cross-platform games the norm. 50% or higher subscriber penetration, substantial improvement in handset features that enhance the gaming experience. More innovative business models, more bundling with other apps and services. IP relates to technology and innovation in addition to content. Catalog on the device. Microsoft a dominant player. Significant use of all available features on the handset and the network. Legal and payment aspects of content are all automated.

Community – If one had to pick a theme for the conference, it definitely was “community, community, community.” Small and big players alike expounded on the importance of community and communication though there seems to be some confusion as to what “community” actually means. Trip Hawkins talked at length about community and social computing driving mobile game sales while Microsoft is pushing its “Live AnyWhere” platform. More on LAW shortly.

Value-chain collaboration – Asian economies are better at value chain collaboration than their western counterparts. Daishiro Okada gave an example of the partnership of DoCoMo, Panasonic, NEC, and Square Enix to enhance the mobile gaming experience. Similarly, DoCoMo had worked with SEGA to develop some neat experiences and offerings in the early 2000s. SK Telecom and KTF also work closely with both device manufacturers and content providers to have a more consistent content and enhanced user experience strategy. US carriers have started to change their attitudes towards wireless data in general but they still work in silos internally and there is less collaboration between different entities within the company such as procurement, marketing, mobile gaming, messaging, etc. Unless one takes a holistic view, final products will miss the mark.

RIM – a gaming platform? RIM had a booth trying to woo the developers to consider Blackberry as a gaming platform. They might do well in corporate thriller or corporate scandal game category.

Microsoft’s entry into mobile gaming space – Microsoft is one company that can take a holistic view of things and change the industry. What’s impressive about the vision is its inclusion of different platforms and development environments. It is not usual for Microsoft to promote or target J2ME and BREW platforms but they are going after them to build a rich ecosystem of devices that can be supported and can talk to their XBOX platform and perhaps even tie-in other gaming communities as well. Can you imagine the wealth of user, device, and network data that will be captured as a result? Hello advertising. Yahoo and Google should be afraid. This will also lead to some disruptive business models and interesting carrier conversations. Imagine migrating the model to other areas such as enterprise applications. How well Microsoft is able to execute its strategy worldwide will define the next shift in mobile gaming.

McDonalds vs. Starbucks – Publishers are aiming to become the Starbucks of the mobile games market where people come in, pay a premium to a commodity offering, spend time in the environment, commune, spend more money, and come back again for more. This versus the current fast-food environment with low spending desire.

Licensed vs. original content – Big brands still drives the sales. Every now and then there will be a game based on original content and vision that will be do well but for the most part without some branded (meaning licensed content) equity, the chance of making a “hit” drops faster than the temperature on mountain top after the sunset. That means only innovation can get you attention.

Fuzzy Math – Telephia, M:Metrics and others regularly publish the top selling mobile games, their market share, the revenues generated etc. These lists have significant impact on how the games and the players are perceived within the industry and hence can harm or benefit a company (especially smaller ones) depending on which side of the equation they end up. Many of the publishers – big and small, and carriers seemed frustrated at the wide discrepancies in the results from both Telephia and M:Metrics. For e.g. Telephia results indicate a gender-gap while M:Metrics’ don’t. Publishers indicated that the order of their top hits published by research vendors is inconsistent with their internal numbers. Carriers also noted that they have never heard of some of the games that appear on the top 10 list which points to some sampling issues. Since these numbers have a direct impact on strategies, planning, marketing, execution, and revenues of many companies, much more transparency in sampling and statistical methodologies and validation of results is warranted.

Missing the big picture – Except for some of the seasoned industry veterans like Daishiro Okada (Square Enix), Trip Hawkins (Digital Chocolate), Chris Early (Microsoft), Mark Pierce (SHFF), and some others, most (esp. the smaller players) seemed to be operating in a world of their own, unaware or uninterested in what’s currently going on outside the mobile gaming space and how it might impact their respective businesses. As pointed out above, mobile gaming is shifting gears and people who aren’t watching for trends and developments outside their sub-segment will be creamed within the next 12 months. Developers will benefit from looking at the developments in the areas of mobile music, mobile search, voice recognition, mobile video & broadcasting, mobile advertising, near field communications, etc. As Mark Pierce noted, his experience in working on projects with Jumptap (mobile search), v-enable (voice search), Autodesk (location), Mobot (visual search), Vibetones (vibration), GestureTech (motion, tilt) helped him gain a broader perspective of the industry that he can apply to his passion of building mobile games. Conference attendees would have also benefited from the perspective of infrastructure vendors like Ericsson and Motorola – what’s coming and when? For e.g. SIP and IMS will have a direct impact on the mobile gaming market but they were barely uttered by any of the speakers. 3G will hit the inflection point next year but not much was discussed except EA Mobile demonstrating 3G only games.

Such focused conferences (vs. say CTIA) do elevate the issues and there are more direct conversations and less ducking the critical questions.

Overall a great show pointing to interesting times ahead.

Your comments are always welcome.

Chetan Sharma

(http://www.chetansharma.com/mgc2006.htm)

Seattle Mobile Gaming Conference/WSA

Seattle Mobile Conference going on today and tomorrow. Also, moderated a panel on Mobile gaming earlier today -

Jeff Davis, Chief Executive Officer and Founder, GoGoMo

Tom Meigs, Executive Producer, Yahoo! Mobile Games

Derrick Morton, General Manager, Mobile Games, North America and
Asia, RealNetworks

Chetan Sharma, Chetan Sharma Consulting (moderator)

Scott Wallin, President & CEO, Metaplay

More soon

Microsoft’s massive media spend next year

Microsoft's over $2B spend next year will start to have implications to the mobile world in 2008. Seattle Times has good coverage http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002973119_microsoft05.html

Coolest experience in Korea

Haven't had the time to summarize my awesome trip to South Korea. Though the phones were nice and one can see what the craze is about, I thought the coolest item was this projector in the malls that projected interactive games on the floor that people can interact with. Check out http://www.infimedia.co.kr/ Forget cell phones, US will go crazy over these interactive games devices

CTIA and Mobile Entertainment Summit Roundup

My week started with a presentation on “US Wireless Market: Trends, Technologies, and Opportunities” to the CTIA-bound Japanese delegation that included very knowledgeable executives from NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, Kyocera, Mitsubishi, Base, MCPC, Vodafone, and Willcom. During networking, had some interesting conversations with our Japanese friends regarding content business, UMA, WiMax, 4G, and new business models.

Spent next three days attending Mobile Entertainment Summit (April 4th; Chetan Sharma Consulting was research partner for the event) and CTIA (April 5-7th), talking to companies, looking at demos, visiting with colleagues and friends, and just absorbing the atmosphere and distilling things down to “what does this mean?” Below is the summary of key observations, thoughts, and digressions.

General atmosphere – As expected, the show grew bigger in terms of attendees (over 40K) and exhibitors marked by return of double story booths, glitz, and million dollar marketing budgets. Samsung and LG clearly were dueling it out for the most recognized brand out there trying to out-do each other in invoking a subliminal conversation with the customers. There was tremendous excitement at the opportunities, fear of missing it out, and yearning for figuring things out to ride the wave.

Booth of the show award is a tie between LG and Motorola with Samsung close behind. Honorable mentions: Philips, Lucent, and Siemens.

Typically, the main CTIA show focuses a lot on infrastructure, middleware, network, and handsets. This time, it was also about applications. There are readjustments going on in the value chain and with the looming consolidation wave, the rubric cubes will be rearranged in several sub segments. Wireless email had already starting shifting that way even though we are below 10% penetration.

Convergence was a big theme of the show. Consulting firms Deloitte and PwC released their reports on the subject and every major infrastructure player was talking about the impact of Fixed-Mobile Convergence (FMC). Convergence across PSTN, Cellular, WiFi, Bluetooth, Cordless Telephony Profile (CTP), Unlicensed Mobile Access (UMA), Session Initiation Protocol (SIP), IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS), and Digital Living Network Alliance (DLNA) were all discussed in some detail. From a consumer point of view, it comes down to how fast the network is upgraded to provide the functionality and the number of devices in the market to take advantage of the feature-set at reasonable prices. Until then, it is just talk.

Positioning – Several companies are coming around to what DoCoMo taught us about i-mode. It was all about – improving the life experiences of customers. Nokia’s tag line changed from “voice goes mobile” to “life goes mobile” and “work goes mobile”. MTV expresses itself as a “content experience” company. Microsoft is all about “Discover, Innovate, Deliver” while Motorola wants to produce “must do” experiences.

Mobile TV is another area that is priming up for some consolidation as various components are commoditized (esp. for Unicast). It is not that, we are done with the innovation in this segment, in fact, we are only getting started, however, the drive will come from how the video content is packaged with other pieces of content and applications and made more interactive with humans and machines. The number of companies in the space almost doubled since last show (Ortiva, VectorMax, Snell & Wilcox, NMS, Nexage, Vimio). Everyone agrees that MobiTV has a huge advantage. It is a good case study of “first mover advantage”. It will be interesting to see if they can build on their success and compete effectively against broadcast solutions. Broadcast is the future of MobileTV. Mediaflo rocks. Key questions are: can the carriers get the business model right at launch that promotes usage and will the political and regulatory climate foster Mediaflo growth in light of DVB-H (Modeo in US) and DMB. Japan, Korea, and US are fertile ground for this battle. Qualcomm is working on Mediaflo as well as DVB-H chipsets. Slingbox was also showing their place-shift mobile video solution. It will be interesting to see how carriers block-and-tackle this one.

AORTA and 3G revisited – Since the article “3G – Hitting the Mass Market”, the tipping point assessment has been validated by several other analysts. In US and Europe, 3G deployments will start hitting critical mass in the first half of 2007 and we are getting closer to the vision of Always-On Real-Time Access (AORTA).

Mobile Search – During last couple of CTIA shows, mobile search has been an upcoming thing. During the last six months, 3 of the top 5 carriers have launched mobile search solutions with some incredible returns and actual impact on the bottom-line. Some branded solutions have also been launched and various business models are being tested. One can feel the tension between carrier-branded search and solutions from the likes of Google, and Yahoo. Who can build a better mouse-trap? Will carriers cede control and help non-carrier solutions with carrier-resident data? Feature-set is straightforward. Question is what customer data can one use to enhance the user-experience. If carriers are smart about it, they will work with white-label vendors such as Infospace (also Medio, Jumptap, etc.) to develop some really neat analytics that feeds back into user experience. Voice search solutions are also becoming more prominent. In the last 6 months, Voicebox, Voicesignal, Promptu, and V-enable have announced voice search solutions.

User Interface is getting better – Players in the value chain are paying more and more attention to the user-experience. As predicted, MVNOs are having an impact on how device manufacturers and carriers think about customization. Amp’D, ESPN, Disney, and Helio all have custom clients. Rather than relegating the user experience on device browser and archaic transcoding solutions, these MVNOs want to provide a controlled and immersive user experience. With 2^nd tier device guys eager to do what-ever-it-takes to make the user experience attractive, mainstream device manufacturers and carriers will need to get their acts together in a hurry. Verizon’s announcement (about using Flash) is recognition of this trend. Also, there were some apps with really cool UIs from startups such as DSI.

Community and User-generated content – There was tremendous activity in the mobile community and user-generated content space, from blogs and SMS to video and music content around community networks. Indeed, it is all about communities and user-generated content plays an incredibly important role in it. Though we have seen significant amount of growth in ringtones, graphics market, this will explode when UGC (including music, video) is put into the mix. This has been validated by multiple data points, the newest one being from 3 in Europe through seemetv service. How quickly will carriers embrace this so that the poor schmuck with 10 goofy videos with no technical capability gets to put their content for sharing, for barter, or for sale. Companies such as Intercasting, Juicewireless, AirG, SMS.ac, Bango, Blogstar, Helio (Myspace) are coming at the opportunity from different angles.

MVNO launches Since last CTIA, ESPN Mobile and Amp’D have launched. This CTIA marked the launch of Disney Mobile and the concept resonated with most attendees esp. folks who have kids. They also got their handset strategy right by pricing it for mass consumption. Service will become available in June. Helio is supposed to launch around the same time. In the meantime, Vegas started taking bets on which MVNO will be the first to fold. As I have discussed in prior articles, MVNOs have clearly raised the bar on user experience and will continue to push the envelope. The willingness of Asian manufacturers to customize at a frantically rapid pace is going to put pressure on the big boys and is already having an impact on their strategy and roadmaps.

Enterprise – Though there were a couple of Enterprise pavilions, the substance was pretty light. Revenue potential of enterprise solutions is equally big if not bigger than the consumer segment, yet it fails to get attention beyond mobile email which itself is becoming a commodity play. It should be noted that there were a couple of vendors that are trying out new approaches to the consumer email such as using MMS for email (Memova).

Mobile Diagnostics and Performance measurement – With the advent of 3G and numerous data apps, the impact on network storage and performance is enormous but is often not talked about. The amount of bytes generated in 3G networks is many times more than 2G and 2.5G networks. As such, the networks need to be planned and monitored appropriately. Testing and simulation of applications, services, and handsets also become more important. Companies such as Vallent, EMC, Keynote, Schema, and Argogroup are looking at the problem from different angles.

4G – Though no body in the industry agrees what it is, some semblance of “Beyond 3G” solutions started showing up at the show from IMT-Advanced solutions from DoCoMo (1Gbps) to WiMax pavilion. Samsung had the WiBro gear at the show – handsets and infrastructure – very cool to see things end-to-end. WiBro trials are ongoing in Korea and we are likely to learn a lot from the results that will help decision makers in the WiMax segment. However, we are still a long ways away (200 before we see any meaningful mass market penetration for mobile WiMax (There are a number of trials going on around the world from DoCoMo, Willcom, Softbank, KDDI, Sprint, SKT, and KT). It should be noted that US spectrum auction is slated to start June 29^th, 2006. It will be interesting to see who ends up with what esp. Clearwire and if any of the non-traditional players such as Google, Disney, DirecTV, and Microsoft make a run for it.

Near Field Communications (NFC) – DoCoMo has had success with FeliCa (Sony’s technology) launch in Japan. Things are increasingly looking bright for NFC-based solutions (mobile wallet, venue check-in, authentication, etc). Mastercard is running some trials on East coast. Cingular has been running some trials in Atlanta area using Nokia phones with Philips NFC technology. In addition to contactless payment capability, NFC-equipped phone can also read data from compatible tags, opening new content discovery avenues. The biggest challenge is of course getting the required infrastructure in place and endorsement or participation by at least one or two major retailers such as Starbucks or McDonalds. Many companies from Philips to smaller players such as MobilyT had neat NFC prototypes. Paypal also launched its mobile payment solution. Many companies are looking to bypass carrier billing so they have more control – it will be an interesting battle to watch.

M2M – With most major western markets reaching saturation, focus has been shifting to M2M applications and device-to-device networking. In addition to the big players such as Siemens, Motorola, and Phillips, newer players such as Esmertec were discussing the potential and applications.

Chinese presence – In the CTIA roundup one year back, I noted “Chinese are coming”. If there was any doubt, it was pretty clear from this show that Chinese wireless players are going to be significant force to reckon with. They are already making an impact in markets outside China, such as in India, Eastern Europe, and Latin America. Booths and showcases from ZTE, UTStarcom, and Huawei rivaled their western counterparts. Noticeably, several software and SI Indian firms also had presence at the show.

Handset business will continue to be brutal. Samsung, LG, Motorola, and Nokia all had a good line up of new handsets. Chinese manufacturers such as Techfaith wireless and Amoi also had some sleek handsets on display (Amoi even had knock-offs of Razr and iPod phone)

Mobile Advertising – Not much substantive progress since last time, except for more talk, and more companies popping up. The concepts and business models are starting to get more serious discussions from carriers, content providers, aggregators, and advertisers. Some interesting ad performance tools are also coming up (Integrated Media Measurement Inc.). It comes down to who has the relationship with the customer, what’s the depth of consumer profile information, and the trust-level established with the customers. ActionEngine’s MSNBC launch, new startups Rhythm NewMedia and VibesMedia, and Free DA (supported by Ads) were among the highlights in this area.

Location Based Services – I remember working on LBS solutions back in 97-98 timeframe and the technology was going to change the world (in the US). Largely due to FCC’s inability to enforce its own rulings, we didn’t see much progress for a number of years. Though Nextel has been providing LBS in the enterprise sector, it was only recently with Sprint opening up its APIs for selected developers that we are seeing some LBS based apps for the consumer sector e.g. FindIt. Disney Mobile is also making location a key feature of its offering for kid-tracker types of apps.

Microsoft dominance starts – It has taken a number of years, but shift is noticeable now. With smart phones penetration increasing, Microsoft is starting to dominate the high-end market. A good percentage of new smart phones are running MS software though Linux is also making some inroads in this market (DoCoMo, China). If the battery power issues can be resolved and the OS moves into the sub-$200 market, it will accelerate MS’s dominance of handsets. There was also talk about Opensource OS for mobile devices.

Open gardens – Pretty soon, being “open” will be considered a competitive advantage. At the two extremes are T-Mobile International (which gave up and opened up its greenhouse to the likes of Google) and Verizon (which might be one of the last ones to open up its nursery). Then we have carriers such as Cingular who are slowly but surely opening up access and getting closer to the i-mode model (e.g. recent Myspace announcement)

Misc. – Impatica was showing their solution of running PowerPoint from blackberry. Pretty slick and easy. Another interesting app I learned about was that of using SIM as a token generator for authentication. This can be really handy for corporate security.

Later this week, I am leaving for Korea to meet with some really smart guys in the wireless industry and experience the wireless broadband capital of the world first hand.

Your comments are always welcome.

Copyright, 2006 Chetan Sharma Consulting. All Rights Reserved