Worldwide Wireless Data Trends - Mid Year Update 2006

 

 

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This research note summarizes the wireless data trends in over 40 countries and the analysis of over 30 prominent operators.

• Wireless industry crossed several milestones this past 6 months - 2 billion GSM subscribers and is on its way to the quickest billion subscribers within the next 2 years. 100M 3G subscribers with 66% coming from WCDMA (40% of these from Japan) and rest from EV-DO.
• Japan led the way with approximately $10B in wireless data service revenues for the first half of 2006. US and China followed with approximately $7B and $5.5B respectively.
• The #1 carrier worldwide in terms of total wireless data revenues for the first six months of 2006 is NTT DoCoMo with over $5.1B in data revenues. It was followed by China Mobile ($3.9B), KDDI ($3.3B), Verizon Wireless ($1.9B), and Cingular Wireless ($1.9B). Sprint Nextel, O2 UK, Vodafone Japan, SK Telecom, and China Unicom filled the rest of the top 10 slots respectively.
• China crossed the 400M subscriber mark and is on its way to cross the half billion subscriber mark in 2007. As first discussed in our “India’s Wireless Market” report, India is rivaling China’s monthly net adds of 5M/month and crossed the 100M subscriber mark making it the fourth largest subscriber base after China, US, and Russia. India will cross Russia later this year and the US by 2008 to become the second largest wireless market.
• Western Europe officially crossed the 100% wireless subscriber penetration mark (due to multiple SIMs) with several nations reporting up to 115-120% subscriber penetration. In spite of crossing 70% penetration mark, US wireless market shows no sign of slowing down and is strongly progressing towards another record year with over 25M net adds in 2006.
• In terms of total subscribers, China Mobile with 274M subscribers is way ahead of the second ranked Vodafone, which has 187M subscribers. China Unicom, América Móvil, Telefonica, SingTel, Deutsche Telekom (T-Mobile), and Orange (France Telecom) are the next six largest telecom groups in the world. In terms of individual carriers, Cingular and Verizon now occupy the #3 and #4 spot respectively ahead of NTT DoCoMo, which is at #5. The two Chinese carriers round up the top two positions and are likely to stay perched at their lookout vistas for some years to come. Telecom groups in mature markets are under enormous pressure to either come up with a global expansion strategy or accelerate their existing plans. Carriers in Japan and Korea are the most under duress.
• Japan became the first nation to have more than 50% of its subscribers using 3G. Korea is close second. 3G is starting to pick-up steam in both western Europe and North America as discussed in our cover story article “3G: Hitting the Mass Market” published in Moconews.net and Wireless World Magazine. Since then, we have presented our research at IEEE, CINA, EMC, Carriers in US; in Japan, Korea, and Russia; and later this year in India.
• China and India represent the biggest opportunities for Infrastructure providers. China has postponed its 3G decision for the umpteenth time and is having technical and political problems to get something in place before the 2008 Olympics. India is going through its 3G spectrum policy but unlike China is likely to resolve the issues in short order. Ericsson just scored a $1B contract with Bharti. BSNL’s tender is worth 2-3 times more.
• In terms of data ARPU, Japan continues to lead the pack with 28% of its revenues coming from data services amounting to almost $17 data ARPU. Ireland, Norway, Switzerland, UK and South Korea also registered significant data ARPU. US crossed the ($5, 10%) block, where $5 is the data ARPU and 10% represents the % share of overall ARPU. As of June 2006, US stood at ($6.3, 12%). For detailed US Wireless Market update, please see “US Wireless Data Market - Mid Year Update 2006” ( For more details, please refer to the 9-box diagram in the ppt or the 2006 paper – “Worldwide Wireless Data Trends”; for 2005 comparative numbers, please refer to our paper from last year titled “Perspectives: Wireless Data ARPU”)
• NTT DoCoMo’s position at the top of the wireless data world has been challenged recently by several carriers esp. by its archrival KDDI which surged past DoCoMo for two straight quarters. Their data coordinates respectively stand at ($17.3, 28.9%) and ($16.5, 28%). However, it is 3 UK that is inching towards ($20, 30%) mark with $19.3 data ARPU contributing over 25% to its overall ARPU. 3 Italy with ($15.6, 34%) is also amongst the leaders.
• The biggest % contribution by data ARPU has been consistently registered (since mid 2002) by the two Philippines carriers – Smart Communications and Globe Telecom with almost 50% (or $3) contribution coming from data services.
• Even though China reported approximately $5.5B in data revenues, and the % contribution is over 20%, data ARPU is around $2, confirming what we already know – it’s a volume game. For India data ARPU is just over $1.2. Approximately same for Brazil and Russia. Actually, in 2005 the overall wireless service revenues in US were two times the overall revenues of the four BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries combined. So, lessons are pretty clear as to which markets to approach for what products and services.
• We will have to look at the EOY 2006 numbers but there are some indications of cooling down of data ARPU growth in mature markets of Japan, Korea, and UK. So, while % contribution will increase due to declining voice revenues, data ARPU will not make up for the loss. Most of the mature markets face the same dilemma. In fact, comparing EOY 2005 to 2004 numbers, only a handful nations registered positive increase in overall ARPU with Canada ($3), Korea ($3), Mexico ($1), Taiwan ($1), Brazil ($1), and Chile ($1) showing an increase. For majority of the other nations, the ARPU declined, for example by $2 for US, Thailand, India, Australia, and Argentina. Nigeria recorded a massive $23 decline.
• All the carriers in the top 10 wireless carriers by wireless data revenues list exceeded $1B in data revenues for the first six months of 2006. China Mobile and China Unicom benefited from their huge subscriber base of 274M and 135M respectively while DoCoMo and KDDI did well because they are generating over $17 (or 28%) in wireless data ARPU.
• Carriers with nationwide 3G networks and good distribution of handsets are seeing up tick in data ARPU. The Japanese and Korean carriers along with operator 3, Verizon, Sprint Nextel are all seeing benefits of rolling out their 3G service. Deployment of 3.5G technologies such as HSDPA and EV-DO Rev A (and B) are also gaining momentum. Networks are getting deployed and market is being seeded with some of the early handsets.
• In terms of applications, messaging accounts for lion-share of data revenues. However, other services such as Mobile Music, Mobile TV and video streaming, Mobile Games, IMS, LBS, Mobile advertising, and others have captured industry’s imagination. Though not much talked about, enterprise applications are also being adopted widely esp. in North America as more workers become mobile and corporations seek efficiencies in their operations and supply-chain.
• In Japan and Korea, consumer messaging revenue only accounts for 30% of the data revenues, rest is from multimedia applications, browser traffic, and other infotainment applications. It is almost the reverse in Europe with 70-80% (on average) of the data revenue is coming from messaging. There are some exceptions like Vodafone Spain, Telefonica Moviles Espana, and Eurotel, who have over 40% of their data revenues coming from non-messaging applications. For North America, the data revenue from non-messaging applications (excluding transport) is around 20%.
• China Mobile is challenging Vodafone’s supremacy as most valued telecom operator. For a brief period in August, it was valued higher than Vodafone and is likely to overtake the crown as China continues to add significant number of subscribers while Vodafone struggles.
• WiMax is gaining some traction both in the developed and developing world. However, the case for mobile WiMax is still quite questionable. By the time the embedded devices come to fruition, 3G devices will be quite pervasive and the WiMax services will not be able to compete on price alone. And, a sub $30 WiMax handset for the developing world is nothing short of a pipe dream at this point. WiMax for backhaul makes sense, and some niche scenarios for fixed wireless services will also be successful, but clearly, we will not be witnessing replacement of cellular anytime soon. Free Wi-Fi movement scored more deployments around the world though the business model to support them long-term stays unproven.

Your comments are always welcome.

See you at CTIA.

US Wireless Data Market - Mid Year Update 2006

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• US wireless data market is growing at an impressive rate. Top 4 US carriers (Cingular, Verizon, Sprint Nextel, and T-Mobile) accounted for over $6.3B in wireless data revenues for the first half of 2006. Overall, wireless data service revenues exceeded $7B and the figures are likely to exceed $15B for the year 2006. This is almost a 75% jump from end-of-2005 number of $8.6B. The growth rate slowed down only slightly from 2004-2005 growth rate of 87%. SMS and data transport still drives bulk of data revenues but their percentage share is declining.
• Among the top 4 US carriers, Verizon has made the most impressive strides in the last 4 quarters, increasing their wireless data revenues by a whopping 114%. Next Sprint with 71%, T-Mobile with 65%, and Cingular with 54% also netted impressive gains.
• Verizon became the first US carrier to net over $1B in wireless data revenues in a quarter. Cingular was close second with $979M and Sprint with $935M are likely to cross the $1B mark next quarter.
• Sprint retains its leadership position of highest wireless data ARPU in terms of absolute dollar amount at $7.25 but lost its number one spot in the % data ARPU to Verizon which now leads the US carriers at almost 13%. Average data ARPU is now $6.3 or 12%.
• Overall ARPU (voice + data) increased slightly from Q106 but declined $0.27 from Q405. The general trend is towards slow decline. Data revenue is barely keeping up with the decline in voice ARPU. On an average voice ARPU has declined 8% from a year ago and data ARPU has increased 48%. Average Overall ARPU was $53.04. Sprint led with $62 followed by T-Mobile at $51, Verizon at $49.7, and Cingular with $48.4.
• If the current trends hold, Verizon Wireless is likely to surpass Cingular Wireless as number 1 US carrier by Q307.
• US had about 7M 3G subscribers by Q206, primarily from Verizon and Sprint Nextel. With Cingular joining the fray, the 3G growth is expected to accelerate with 2007 being the inflection year.
• US wireless subscriber penetration stands at approximately 74% and is likely to exceed 78% by the end of the year.
• Top 4 carriers added 12.7M subscribers from Jan-Jun 2006.
• The top 4 US carrier account for 79% of the subscribers, 86% of the service revenues, and approximately 95% of the wireless data revenues.
• US Off-net revenues for the year are likely to exceed $750M.
• Data ARPU of CDMA/EV-DO carriers was 20% higher than GSM/WCDMA carriers.
• Several high-profile MVNOs were also launched in the last few months and the overall results have been disappointing primarily due to poor execution, instant crowding effect, and competition from big 4.
• US wireless carriers are steadily climbing in their wireless data performance as compared to their peers worldwide. Verizon, Cingular, and Sprint ranked number 4, 5, and 6 respectively, amongst the top 10 operators worldwide in terms of total wireless data revenue generated for first half of 2006.
• The #1 carrier worldwide in terms of total wireless data revenue for the first six months of 2006 is NTT DoCoMo which has maintained its position for a number of years. It is now generating almost $900M/month from wireless data revenues.
• The top 10 carriers in terms of total wireless data revenues for 1H06 in order of rank are NTT DoCoMo, China Mobile, KDDI, Verizon Wireless, Cingular Wireless, Sprint Nextel, O2 UK, Vodafone Japan, SK Telecom, and China Unicom. (6 Asian, 3 US, 1 Europe. Who says US is behindJ). Vodafone Germany, TMO Germany, and TMO US are also closing in.
• All the top 10 carriers in the list exceeded $1B in data revenues for the first six months of 2006. China Mobile and China Unicom benefited from their huge subscriber base of 274M and 135M respectively while DoCoMo and KDDI did well because they are generating over $17 (or 28%) in wireless data ARPU.
• The top 10 carriers accounted for almost $24B in wireless data revenues for the first six months of 2006. The top 10 carriers account for approximately 700M (or approx 28%) subscribers worldwide.
• In terms of wireless investments, over $2.8B was invested in wireless related companies/startups from Jan-Jun 2006 (this figure jumped to $4.1B in July). Source: Rutberg. Mobile TV/Video, Mobile Personalization, Mobile Search and Advertising, Semiconductor, Carrier infrastructure, Device design and development are hot areas. M&A activity also picked up quite significantly.
• WiMax industry got a big boost with almost $1B investment in Clearwire and due to Sprint Nextel’s announcement of WiMax deployment. Sigh of relief for Intel and Samsung. Puts pressure on Qualcomm. Maybe Intel will renegotiate with Clearwire.
• Worldwide Handset market share: Nokia and Motorola dominated with 35% and 23% market share respectively. Samsung with 12% stands third. Source: iSuppli. Though Apple’s iPhone rumors have been clouding the market, it is Motorola which continues to lead in launching must-have handsets. Windows mobile is starting to make serious inroads in the handset market but performance issues and high price points deter mass market adoption.

Download PPT http://www.chetansharma.com/midyearupdate06.htm 

India - Driving the Next Phase of Global (Wireless) Expansion

the article is online now http://www.chetansharma.com/India_July06.pdf

HP’s Memory Spot

Last week, HP spoke about Memory Spot - http://www.hp.com/hpinfo/newsroom/press/2006/060717a.html

The experimental chip, developed by the “Memory Spot” research team at HP Labs, is a memory device based on CMOS (a widely used, low-power integrated circuit design) and about the size of a grain of rice or smaller (2 mm to 4 mm square), with a built-in antenna. The chips could be embedded in a sheet of paper or stuck to any surface, and could eventually be available in a booklet as self-adhesive dots.

The chip has a 10 megabits-per-second data transfer rate – 10 times faster than Bluetooth™ wireless technology and comparable to Wi-Fi speeds – effectively giving users instant retrieval of information in audio, video, photo or document form. With a storage capacity ranging from 256 kilobits to 4 megabits in working prototypes, it could store a very short video clip, several images or dozens of pages of text. Future versions could have larger capacities.

A step forward in our AORTA world. Potential apps listed in the press release

Enterprise Mobility Cover Story

Our cover story on Enterprise Mobility in Wireless World Magazine June 2006

http://www.chetansharma.com/JUNE_cover%story.pdf

CTIA and Mobile Entertainment Summit Roundup

My week started with a presentation on “US Wireless Market: Trends, Technologies, and Opportunities” to the CTIA-bound Japanese delegation that included very knowledgeable executives from NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, Kyocera, Mitsubishi, Base, MCPC, Vodafone, and Willcom. During networking, had some interesting conversations with our Japanese friends regarding content business, UMA, WiMax, 4G, and new business models.

Spent next three days attending Mobile Entertainment Summit (April 4th; Chetan Sharma Consulting was research partner for the event) and CTIA (April 5-7th), talking to companies, looking at demos, visiting with colleagues and friends, and just absorbing the atmosphere and distilling things down to “what does this mean?” Below is the summary of key observations, thoughts, and digressions.

General atmosphere – As expected, the show grew bigger in terms of attendees (over 40K) and exhibitors marked by return of double story booths, glitz, and million dollar marketing budgets. Samsung and LG clearly were dueling it out for the most recognized brand out there trying to out-do each other in invoking a subliminal conversation with the customers. There was tremendous excitement at the opportunities, fear of missing it out, and yearning for figuring things out to ride the wave.

Booth of the show award is a tie between LG and Motorola with Samsung close behind. Honorable mentions: Philips, Lucent, and Siemens.

Typically, the main CTIA show focuses a lot on infrastructure, middleware, network, and handsets. This time, it was also about applications. There are readjustments going on in the value chain and with the looming consolidation wave, the rubric cubes will be rearranged in several sub segments. Wireless email had already starting shifting that way even though we are below 10% penetration.

Convergence was a big theme of the show. Consulting firms Deloitte and PwC released their reports on the subject and every major infrastructure player was talking about the impact of Fixed-Mobile Convergence (FMC). Convergence across PSTN, Cellular, WiFi, Bluetooth, Cordless Telephony Profile (CTP), Unlicensed Mobile Access (UMA), Session Initiation Protocol (SIP), IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS), and Digital Living Network Alliance (DLNA) were all discussed in some detail. From a consumer point of view, it comes down to how fast the network is upgraded to provide the functionality and the number of devices in the market to take advantage of the feature-set at reasonable prices. Until then, it is just talk.

Positioning – Several companies are coming around to what DoCoMo taught us about i-mode. It was all about – improving the life experiences of customers. Nokia’s tag line changed from “voice goes mobile” to “life goes mobile” and “work goes mobile”. MTV expresses itself as a “content experience” company. Microsoft is all about “Discover, Innovate, Deliver” while Motorola wants to produce “must do” experiences.

Mobile TV is another area that is priming up for some consolidation as various components are commoditized (esp. for Unicast). It is not that, we are done with the innovation in this segment, in fact, we are only getting started, however, the drive will come from how the video content is packaged with other pieces of content and applications and made more interactive with humans and machines. The number of companies in the space almost doubled since last show (Ortiva, VectorMax, Snell & Wilcox, NMS, Nexage, Vimio). Everyone agrees that MobiTV has a huge advantage. It is a good case study of “first mover advantage”. It will be interesting to see if they can build on their success and compete effectively against broadcast solutions. Broadcast is the future of MobileTV. Mediaflo rocks. Key questions are: can the carriers get the business model right at launch that promotes usage and will the political and regulatory climate foster Mediaflo growth in light of DVB-H (Modeo in US) and DMB. Japan, Korea, and US are fertile ground for this battle. Qualcomm is working on Mediaflo as well as DVB-H chipsets. Slingbox was also showing their place-shift mobile video solution. It will be interesting to see how carriers block-and-tackle this one.

AORTA and 3G revisited – Since the article “3G – Hitting the Mass Market”, the tipping point assessment has been validated by several other analysts. In US and Europe, 3G deployments will start hitting critical mass in the first half of 2007 and we are getting closer to the vision of Always-On Real-Time Access (AORTA).

Mobile Search – During last couple of CTIA shows, mobile search has been an upcoming thing. During the last six months, 3 of the top 5 carriers have launched mobile search solutions with some incredible returns and actual impact on the bottom-line. Some branded solutions have also been launched and various business models are being tested. One can feel the tension between carrier-branded search and solutions from the likes of Google, and Yahoo. Who can build a better mouse-trap? Will carriers cede control and help non-carrier solutions with carrier-resident data? Feature-set is straightforward. Question is what customer data can one use to enhance the user-experience. If carriers are smart about it, they will work with white-label vendors such as Infospace (also Medio, Jumptap, etc.) to develop some really neat analytics that feeds back into user experience. Voice search solutions are also becoming more prominent. In the last 6 months, Voicebox, Voicesignal, Promptu, and V-enable have announced voice search solutions.

User Interface is getting better – Players in the value chain are paying more and more attention to the user-experience. As predicted, MVNOs are having an impact on how device manufacturers and carriers think about customization. Amp’D, ESPN, Disney, and Helio all have custom clients. Rather than relegating the user experience on device browser and archaic transcoding solutions, these MVNOs want to provide a controlled and immersive user experience. With 2^nd tier device guys eager to do what-ever-it-takes to make the user experience attractive, mainstream device manufacturers and carriers will need to get their acts together in a hurry. Verizon’s announcement (about using Flash) is recognition of this trend. Also, there were some apps with really cool UIs from startups such as DSI.

Community and User-generated content – There was tremendous activity in the mobile community and user-generated content space, from blogs and SMS to video and music content around community networks. Indeed, it is all about communities and user-generated content plays an incredibly important role in it. Though we have seen significant amount of growth in ringtones, graphics market, this will explode when UGC (including music, video) is put into the mix. This has been validated by multiple data points, the newest one being from 3 in Europe through seemetv service. How quickly will carriers embrace this so that the poor schmuck with 10 goofy videos with no technical capability gets to put their content for sharing, for barter, or for sale. Companies such as Intercasting, Juicewireless, AirG, SMS.ac, Bango, Blogstar, Helio (Myspace) are coming at the opportunity from different angles.

MVNO launches Since last CTIA, ESPN Mobile and Amp’D have launched. This CTIA marked the launch of Disney Mobile and the concept resonated with most attendees esp. folks who have kids. They also got their handset strategy right by pricing it for mass consumption. Service will become available in June. Helio is supposed to launch around the same time. In the meantime, Vegas started taking bets on which MVNO will be the first to fold. As I have discussed in prior articles, MVNOs have clearly raised the bar on user experience and will continue to push the envelope. The willingness of Asian manufacturers to customize at a frantically rapid pace is going to put pressure on the big boys and is already having an impact on their strategy and roadmaps.

Enterprise – Though there were a couple of Enterprise pavilions, the substance was pretty light. Revenue potential of enterprise solutions is equally big if not bigger than the consumer segment, yet it fails to get attention beyond mobile email which itself is becoming a commodity play. It should be noted that there were a couple of vendors that are trying out new approaches to the consumer email such as using MMS for email (Memova).

Mobile Diagnostics and Performance measurement – With the advent of 3G and numerous data apps, the impact on network storage and performance is enormous but is often not talked about. The amount of bytes generated in 3G networks is many times more than 2G and 2.5G networks. As such, the networks need to be planned and monitored appropriately. Testing and simulation of applications, services, and handsets also become more important. Companies such as Vallent, EMC, Keynote, Schema, and Argogroup are looking at the problem from different angles.

4G – Though no body in the industry agrees what it is, some semblance of “Beyond 3G” solutions started showing up at the show from IMT-Advanced solutions from DoCoMo (1Gbps) to WiMax pavilion. Samsung had the WiBro gear at the show – handsets and infrastructure – very cool to see things end-to-end. WiBro trials are ongoing in Korea and we are likely to learn a lot from the results that will help decision makers in the WiMax segment. However, we are still a long ways away (200 before we see any meaningful mass market penetration for mobile WiMax (There are a number of trials going on around the world from DoCoMo, Willcom, Softbank, KDDI, Sprint, SKT, and KT). It should be noted that US spectrum auction is slated to start June 29^th, 2006. It will be interesting to see who ends up with what esp. Clearwire and if any of the non-traditional players such as Google, Disney, DirecTV, and Microsoft make a run for it.

Near Field Communications (NFC) – DoCoMo has had success with FeliCa (Sony’s technology) launch in Japan. Things are increasingly looking bright for NFC-based solutions (mobile wallet, venue check-in, authentication, etc). Mastercard is running some trials on East coast. Cingular has been running some trials in Atlanta area using Nokia phones with Philips NFC technology. In addition to contactless payment capability, NFC-equipped phone can also read data from compatible tags, opening new content discovery avenues. The biggest challenge is of course getting the required infrastructure in place and endorsement or participation by at least one or two major retailers such as Starbucks or McDonalds. Many companies from Philips to smaller players such as MobilyT had neat NFC prototypes. Paypal also launched its mobile payment solution. Many companies are looking to bypass carrier billing so they have more control – it will be an interesting battle to watch.

M2M – With most major western markets reaching saturation, focus has been shifting to M2M applications and device-to-device networking. In addition to the big players such as Siemens, Motorola, and Phillips, newer players such as Esmertec were discussing the potential and applications.

Chinese presence – In the CTIA roundup one year back, I noted “Chinese are coming”. If there was any doubt, it was pretty clear from this show that Chinese wireless players are going to be significant force to reckon with. They are already making an impact in markets outside China, such as in India, Eastern Europe, and Latin America. Booths and showcases from ZTE, UTStarcom, and Huawei rivaled their western counterparts. Noticeably, several software and SI Indian firms also had presence at the show.

Handset business will continue to be brutal. Samsung, LG, Motorola, and Nokia all had a good line up of new handsets. Chinese manufacturers such as Techfaith wireless and Amoi also had some sleek handsets on display (Amoi even had knock-offs of Razr and iPod phone)

Mobile Advertising – Not much substantive progress since last time, except for more talk, and more companies popping up. The concepts and business models are starting to get more serious discussions from carriers, content providers, aggregators, and advertisers. Some interesting ad performance tools are also coming up (Integrated Media Measurement Inc.). It comes down to who has the relationship with the customer, what’s the depth of consumer profile information, and the trust-level established with the customers. ActionEngine’s MSNBC launch, new startups Rhythm NewMedia and VibesMedia, and Free DA (supported by Ads) were among the highlights in this area.

Location Based Services – I remember working on LBS solutions back in 97-98 timeframe and the technology was going to change the world (in the US). Largely due to FCC’s inability to enforce its own rulings, we didn’t see much progress for a number of years. Though Nextel has been providing LBS in the enterprise sector, it was only recently with Sprint opening up its APIs for selected developers that we are seeing some LBS based apps for the consumer sector e.g. FindIt. Disney Mobile is also making location a key feature of its offering for kid-tracker types of apps.

Microsoft dominance starts – It has taken a number of years, but shift is noticeable now. With smart phones penetration increasing, Microsoft is starting to dominate the high-end market. A good percentage of new smart phones are running MS software though Linux is also making some inroads in this market (DoCoMo, China). If the battery power issues can be resolved and the OS moves into the sub-$200 market, it will accelerate MS’s dominance of handsets. There was also talk about Opensource OS for mobile devices.

Open gardens – Pretty soon, being “open” will be considered a competitive advantage. At the two extremes are T-Mobile International (which gave up and opened up its greenhouse to the likes of Google) and Verizon (which might be one of the last ones to open up its nursery). Then we have carriers such as Cingular who are slowly but surely opening up access and getting closer to the i-mode model (e.g. recent Myspace announcement)

Misc. – Impatica was showing their solution of running PowerPoint from blackberry. Pretty slick and easy. Another interesting app I learned about was that of using SIM as a token generator for authentication. This can be really handy for corporate security.

Later this week, I am leaving for Korea to meet with some really smart guys in the wireless industry and experience the wireless broadband capital of the world first hand.

Your comments are always welcome.

Copyright, 2006 Chetan Sharma Consulting. All Rights Reserved

RIM-NTP Settlement

As expected, RIM-NTP finally settled and spared potential embarrassment to the US Patent and Judicial system. The battleground now shifts to the host of lawsuits filed by Visto against rest of the wireless email vendors.

FCW Wireless Security/RFID Conference Roundup

Once or twice a year, I get a chance to look at wireless issues in the federal sector, hear and talk to CIOs and executives of various government agencies such as DHS, DOD, GSA etc. It provides a unique view into a different world that is both impressive and befuddling at the same time. Though there are similarities to the Enterprise Mobility segment, it is a difference universe where things are driven by mandates and missions, directives and discourses. While there is a sense of urgency, there is also stifling bureaucracy and ineptitude.

I made my annual pilgrimage to Federal Computer Weekly’s (FCW) Wireless Security and RFID Conference in Washington DC earlier this week (courtesy of Compubahn). Also, spent some time at an event on Capitol Hill hearing some of the CIOs and their underlings on their future IT plans. At the conference, I got an opportunity to moderate a very knowledgeable panel on wireless security matters. We will get to the panel discussion a bit later.

I think it is quite relevant to discuss federal wireless related issues within the enterprise context as there are several lessons to be drawn it can help various organizations who are going through some of the similar challenges or are simply unaware of the problems they have. The most fundamental problem that most agencies (and by the same token most companies) have is lack of a coherent and detailed wireless security policies that considers “all” wireless devices whether they are operating within a WLAN that is controlled by the entity or for the device that is using a foreign network to access internal resources or for the device that is not connected yet but has significant and sensitive information stored on the device. How do you manage these devices? What if the device gets lost or hacked? Is the data encrypted? Does the data that gets copied on the SD card encrypted? How is the policy enforced? Can you use the same policy enforcer that you use for LAN on wide range of devices - PDAs, Symbian phones, BREW devices, etc. What’s the policy on Bluetooth? Do you permit Bluetooth devices in your enterprise? (in some agencies, Bluetooth enabled devices are not procured at all) Are you aware that there is no encryption? What ports get disabled and when? There are plenty of questions but no clear answer. For government, a good starting point is DOD wireless security policy (8100.2). Any enterprise who hasn’t really laid out their wireless policy could benefit from the same as well.

However, the policy needs to be laid out with plans that take into account scenarios 2-5 years from now. The reality today will get outdated really fast and for sure before your current implementation gets done. Once you have the policy, then what? Well, Audit and Enforce it.

One of the keynotes was given by Ron McKenzie who is the point person for American Red Cross IT and wireless implementation (disaster and rescue response units deal with wireless technology and related applications all the time) and reports to SVP and CIO Steve Cooper. He discussed the challenges that Katrina posed to the operations, logistics and IT. The main technology used are Satellite, 2way radios, and Cellular. The main applications are registration, family linking, bringing shelters online, and connecting with financial institutions to issue cards. One of the biggest challenge is scaling up and down of operations. As we are painfully aware - Katrina was a shameful disaster of significant magnitude. One of the basic problem was that communication (ok, so it is not that basic) was woefully lacking. Wireless industry clearly responded well but we could do more. The initiative really needs to come from Red Cross. Ron was looking for feedback from the industry as how they can improve their solutions and processes to better address emergency needs and minimize discomfort and chaos. I bet there are a number of people reading this who have great ideas or experiences that can help in pushing the dialog further. Red Cross is planning to finalize its “lessons learned” booklet by July 06 and thus prepare a process plan that can be replicated in the event of similar or worse disasters in the future. You can help. If you have ideas on emergency preparedness and execution, please send them along and I will compile and pass them on to Ron who has promised to give good consideration to all proposals. A few months back, Tsunami in SE Asia created damage and destruction of epic proportions. I always wonder as to how can the technology be applied to reduce the impact of natural disasters or make rescue and recovery operations more tenable. But, it is clearly not the technology that is a challenge but the people who use (or don’t use) it to streamline the processes. With Satellite, WWAN, WLAN, WPAN technologies, there isn’t a place on earth that can’t have connectivity for communication or data exchange.

One of the more telling problems (and I see this echoed in the commercial world as well) is the lack of user input into solutions or product roadmaps. There are plenty of vendors who are touting cutting-edge solutions to various agencies but they are selling to buyers and not users who typically are busy doing the real work.

My wireless security panel “Technology Fundamentals for End-to-End Security” constituted of Sumit Deshpande, VP, Wireless, CA (Computer Associates), Dean Knuth, National Manager, Northrop Grumman, and Jeff Watts, Sr. Engineer, Smartronix. These guys have dealt with very strict security requirements for most of major agencies esp. DOD. I asked the panel “Is security a technology issue?” Answer was an emphatic NO. Security is a process in which technology plays an important role. Education, training, awareness, audit, and enforcement are as or more critical than the technology implementation of whatever solution you might have. Bruce Schneier explains this in his books and articles better than anyone else.

There has been a lot of talk about 802.11i (WPA2) standard which is supposed to be a lot more secure than current WPA/Tkip implementations. Device management and device security is an important issue that is mostly overlooked. The other aspect that is hardly considered is that there is more to security than just LAN/WLAN - WWAN and WPAN powered devices all need to be managed if security is a concern. Though it hasn’t been a big issue yet, wireless security issues will become important for Sarbanes Oxley compliance as well. How does company keep track of corporate SMS/IM/data on wireless devices? Can it be audited? What are the risks? What are controls in place? Another point to remember - though FIPS 140-2 is becoming the norm for encryption, the certification process is arduous, so plan accordingly.

Amid the discussion about security, one can also go overboard in cases where information being transmitted or stored isn’t sensitive and security provisions only help in alienating the user and they get fed up of the steps required, reduced speeds and investment goes by the way side. Security to some extent is also a balancing act of user convenience and corporate priorities.

There seems to be a trend that CIOs of various agencies are coming from the industry these days. I think a great trend but there are many agencies that lack leadership and initiative and still rely on the big consulting companies to run their shop.

RFID - A good overview report can be downloaded free of cost here

Though there are a lot of privacy and security concerns (just like for Bluetooth), consider the following:

	2005	2010	2015
RFID Tag Pricing	$0.23	$0.06	$0.01
Number of RFID Tags in Use	6.3 million	80 billion	10 trillion
Growth of overall RFID market	$3 billion	$10 billion	$25 billion

Source: IDTechEx (2005)

RFID (and similar WPAN technologies) are going to be pervasive. Applications range from logistics to defense. Though I have been skeptical, human implants are also showing up. Recently a senior executive at one of the biggest software company I was working with told me that I am underestimating the growth in RFID implants in mobile workers in the next 5-10 years. Maybe there is a point, time will tell.

Also, ran into Iridium booth. I thought the company evaporated after their spectacular flameout but they are still hanging their hat and focusing on government, public safety, and on workers that require remote coverage.

My colleague and friend Sunil Jain raised a few interesting questions recently. Right now there are vendors like Symantec who license and manage security and policy on desktops and laptops and then you have vendors such as Pointsec, Mobile Armor, Credent and host of others who focus solely on the wireless device space. With the two worlds converging rapidly, how soon before an enterprise asks Symantec to add a few hundred licenses to their agreement to cover mobile devices as well. Do the (now) niche players get gobbled up by the big boys? or would the reverse be true? Likewise, how do you extend your HP Openview, CA Unicenter, BMC Patrol, or IBM Tivoli to do wireless device management as well. Also, whose responsibility is security anyway? OS Vendor, Handset guys, Network or carrier, enterprise (consumer?). And along the same lines, should security be handled at the network or at the device level? Gartner advocates network level protection. They contemplate that mobile world shouldn’t follow the PC deployments of anti-virus and other risk mitigation tools but rather network should have these services and only go to devices as a last resort. I think both are required, because there are is so much that can happen in a disconnected (from the enterprise but still connected) mode.

For most new technologies or products, security is generally an after-thought. We as an industry need to get better at designing systems, protocols, and technologies with security built-in rather than going through the alphabet soups of new versions to patch-up the mess.

Another area that is gaining traction is the concept of Managed Security. Security is getting complicated and so companies rather than deploying staff are interested in outsourcing device management and security of their mobile assets. Would you do it?

Finally, there are several other interesting federal initiatives like Location Specific Digital Signature (LSDS) and WiMax development work with Intel, Integration of RFID with WLAN, Biometrics, Locating users using WLAN/WPAN. These will trickle into the commercial sectors in the next 2-3 years.

 Your comments are always welcome.

FCW Wireless/RFID Conference 27th Feb

Technology Fundamentals for End-to-End Wireless Security

• What wireless security and management components have to be in place before and during implementation
• How to evaluate your network, devices, applications, and users for wireless applications
• How government organizations have established business-focused policies for deployment of secure wireless networks
• Recommendations to realize the benefits of enterprise-wide security and management
• Key success factors crucial to any enterprise contemplating wireless implementation
• Recommendations on implementation and enforcement of security policies
• How to measure the performance of wireless technology products, options and their compatibility with your requirements

 

When:	Monday, February 27, 2006 1:45PM-3:00PM
Track:	Track 2: Wireless Networks, Technology and Security
Speakers:	Chetan Sharma (Moderator) Senior Technical Advisor, Compubahn and Co-author “Wireless Data Services, Technologies, Business Models, and Global Markets” Sumit Deshpande Vice President, Wireless Solutions Group, Computer Associates Dean Knuth National Manager, Wireless, Mission Systems, Northrop Grumman Jeff Watts Senior Network Security Engineer, Smartronix

Enterprise Mobility - Mapping your Strategy

 Introduction

Enterprise Mobility market has been very active in the last six months – from new product launches to M&A; there is significant investment activity across the board. In a survey done by Computerworld magazine, IT executives rated Mobile and Wireless rollouts as number one technology holding the most promise in their industry or company and number two[1] on the top 10 IT project priorities for 2006. After the near insatiable appetite to mobilize everything in early 2000s, enterprises are putting business sense into their approach towards enterprise mobilizations. It was not that ROI didn’t exist before, but the poor implementations combined with hype and confusion in the market created too much noise in the market place effectively turning away lot of enterprises who would have otherwise taken a deeper look at enterprise mobility.

During the last few years, enterprise mobility market has been maturing and consolidating at a steady pace. Wireless networks are becoming more reliable and delivery bandwidths are increasing with nation-wide 3G networks. Solution provider market has consolidated quite a bit leaving only the serious and more mature contenders behind. The bigger players such as Microsoft, IBM, and Oracle used this time to catch-up on many fronts, though they still lag in some areas. Most of the new devices coming out in the market have a native email client – another sign of maturing market.

Another major change has been that enterprises are demanding more complete solutions. Implementing too many point solutions increases TCO and decreases ROI in the long run. This has forced market to further consolidate and solution providers are expanding their enterprise offerings. Email/PIM remains the number one application that enterprises want to implement and is becoming a commodity[2] play but companies are increasingly looking to enable their investment to support other enterprise functions such as sales force, field force, supply chain, IT, knowledge management, etc. Also, CFOs are increasingly involved with their CTOs/CIOs to make an informed decision on their enterprise mobility related purchases.

Management of devices is an IT function now, but manageability of occasionally connected devices is a challenge. Enterprises are looking encrypt data on the devices and are subjecting their phones and PDAs to same corporate IT risk and management policies as their laptops and desktops.

This article is a focused discussion of key areas for consideration when thinking about enterprise mobility, wireless technologies, and their application to the corporate arena.

 Recommendations Summary

1. Understand the business case for your enterprise
2. Do Scenario Planning
3. Consider mobile project as an IT project
4. Review frequently and actively manage device proliferation
5. Proactively move the enterprise beyond just mobile access
6. Look for vendors with wide-range device support
7. Look for vendors with multiple app offerings
8. Look for vendors who are closely aligned with your carrier partners and device manufacturers
9. Keep TCO across your enterprise mobility projects low
10. Implement security policy for all devices

Download complete paper (720 kb).

    

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[1] No 1 priority is Security

[2] Though the total number of mobile email users is just a fraction of the total business users, patent and IP litigations, M&A in this space, email vendors such as Microsoft - offering mobile email as a standard feature is indicative of a maturing market and commodity nature of the wireless email.